More about our Ike experience after the power and Internet come back on.

My analysis of Gustav is somewhat less scientific:

So imagine my surprise when around lunchtime I saw a Twitter update about a tropical storm forming in the gulf. I checked the radar, and sure enough there was the unmistakable circulation of a storm just offshore. It was just a tropical depression at the time, but has since strengthened into Tropical Storm Humberto.

Batten the hatches, dog the doors.

Update:

The forecasts all call for rain, but vary on how much. Channel 13 said to look for four to six inches. The Chronicle said to expect ten or more.

(Speaking of the Chronicle: congratulations to Eric “SciGuy” Berger, who was named as a finalist for a 2007 Online Journalism Award. Eric does a good, non-sensational job of covering the whole tropical storm phenomena: not just storm-by-storm coverage, but coverage of the science of storm forecasting. Eric also does a rational, evenhanded job of covering the debate over global warming. I trade email with Eric from time to time and have met him on a couple of occasions. He’s a heck of a nice guy and I hope he wins that award.)

The storm is moving slowly, and the nightmare scenario is that it will stall over Houston; the ground is already wet with recent rain and a stalled storm would almost certainly mean flooding. The forecasts don’t call for Humberto to stall, but it’s hard not to worry about Humberto turning into Allison, the tropical storm that brought so much flooding back on 2001. Humberto is expected to make landfall on the Brazoria or Galveston county shores around midnight tonight. After that the forecasts vary again: I’ve heard reports that the rain will clear off by late morning, and other reports that it could rain all day. Can I just stay home tomorrow?

Update:

Thursday morning: Humberto strengthened into a category-1 hurricane before making landfall, but in doing so it moved well to the east, missing the Houston area entirely.

Bit of a disappointment actually.

Let’s review.

In 2005 we had 28 named storms, requiring us to dip into the Greek alphabet to name them all. Fifteen storms reached hurricane strength and seven were major hurricanes (3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale). Four hurricanes reached category 5. Epsilon did not reach hurricane strength until December, and tropical storm Zeta formed in late December and did not dissipate until January. Of course, Katrina was the most damaging storm of the season; she made landfall on the Florida peninsula before crossing the Gulf to ravage New Orleans. Here in Texas it was Rita that had our attention. She reached a strength of category 5, and appeared to be headed straight for Houston at category 4, forcing us to abandon Pine Gulch to seek higher ground. Over 2,200 deaths were blamed on the 2005 storms, and an estimated $120 billion in property damage. Most of those deaths and damage were caused by Katrina; only the unnamed 1900 Galveston storm cost more Americans their lives.

Predictions for this season looked nearly as bad. In their last prediction before the season began in June, Colorado State University predicted the season would bring 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. NOAA predicted 13–16 named storms, 8–10 hurricanes, and 4–6 major hurricanes.

But the season was far calmer than predicted. The actual numbers were: 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and only 2 major hurricanes. No hurricane reached category 4 or 5. Gordon and Helene, the two category 3 storms, formed far out in the Atlantic and never threatened to make landfall. No storms made landfall in the United States at hurricane strength (Ernesto had been a hurricane, but by the time he reached Florida, he had fallen to tropical storm strength). No storms at all formed in October or November. 11 fatalities and about $184 million dollars in damage were attributed to 2006 storms.

Compared to 2005, this year’s season has been a real yawner. And for that I am thankful.

Update: Eric Berger has a nice article at the Chronicle: Goodbye, hurricane season.

I have no good memories of our evacuation. It was easily the most stressful ordeal I’ve ever experienced. Many people around Houston feel the same way about Rita. But not all. Local blogger and attorney FFF (she never tells us her real name) was in the hospital giving birth to her son Boo-Boo.

That makes Boo-Boo one year old today. Happy birthday, little fella!

Update: At 6:20 AM, my Google home page still shows exactly the same conditions as listed above. I think their weather station needs a reboot.